Will AI Replace CTOs? We Analyzed 5,000+ Profiles, Layoffs, and Job Ads

A deep dive into 5,000+ CTO profiles, layoffs, and job ads to understand real AI replacement risk

Will AI replace CTOs?

We analyzed and compared 3,876 profiles to understand the scope of work and daily activities of CTOs. After that, we analyzed layoffs in tech companies and explored which roles were the most affected. Finally, we analyzed 1,245 job listings posted in 2025/2026 and compared them with pre-AI ages: 2021/2022 to track and understand the shift in main responsibilities towards AI.

The result is called the EliteBrains Replaceable Index, represented on a scale of 1–10 (1 lowest, 10 highest replacement risk). Read below to understand how we calculated the CTO replaceable index to be only 2.25 and why CTOs have one of the lowest risks of being replaced.

Scope of work, responsibilities, and AI exposure

First of all, we wanted to have a perfect idea of what the daily job of a CTO is. Obviously, different CTOs have different responsibilities. The biggest difference is between the type and size of companies. A CTO of a smaller company or a startup has hands-on coding on a daily basis, while a CTO of a corporation is mainly managing and reporting to the CEO/board of directors. Yet, we were able to assemble a basic structure that is relevant for more than 80% of CTOs.

The job wasn’t difficult. Profiles of CTOs are publicly available, parsing the data is not difficult, and evaluating the results on a large scale was done with prompts and data analysis.

After assembling the list of CTO responsibilities, we evaluated AI exposure — how AI is able to replace that specific job/routine. That led to the evaluation of the risk of replacement of that specific activity itself.

CTO responsibilities and their exposure to AI

To create a relevant, objective list of CTO responsibilities, we analyzed 3,876 profiles of CTOs. We selected different locations, different company sizes, and different company stages.

CTOs are responsible for several things. They design architecture and do code reviews — in smaller companies on a weekly basis, in bigger companies they delegate this job to tech leads but still oversee the overall quality of code, technical debt, and other parameters. They are also responsible for hiring new software engineers. Again, most of the job is delegated to recruiters sourcing candidates and tech leads, but the main decision and final interviews always go to CTOs. CTOs also build strategy and cooperate with the product team on a regular basis. Last but not least, CTOs report to CEOs and boards of directors.

We also researched which specific activities have a high risk of being replaced by AI. Generally, if an activity/task is:

• Clearly specified
• Learned from past data
• Evaluated automatically

Then it’s automatable. If it’s automatable and describable by an algorithm, it can be executed by machine learning/AI.

On the other hand, if an activity/task is defined by these characteristics, it can hardly be replaced:

• They don’t have a stable “correct solution”
• They can’t be reliably learned from data
• They require responsibility for the consequences

Taking these general principles into consideration, we put together the following table.

 

CTOs’ main responsibilities and tasks:

Task	Time Share	AI Capability	Risk
Code Review	15%	Medium	Medium
Architecture	20%	Medium	Low
Hiring	25%	Low	Low
Strategy	20%	Low	Low
QA Oversight	10%	Medium	Medium
Reporting	10%	Very low	Practically none

Layoffs

The other aspect we analyzed was the types of positions that were the most affected in recent layoffs. A platform www.layoffs.fyi provides a solid overview, and analyzing data on www.linkedin.com was also very helpful.

Here is the list of positions that were the most affected:

1) Engineering & Software Development Roles
An interesting fact is that engineering teams overall show the highest demand in searches but also high presence in layoff lists (over 4× interest compared to other areas), indicating both lots of layoffs and hiring activity.

2) Sales, Marketing & Go-to-Market Roles
Many Layoffs.fyi lists show that commercial functions are often among the first to be trimmed.

3) Product & Business Support Roles
Across Layoffs.fyi lists and aggregated reporting, product-adjacent and internal business functions show significant representation.

While regular software engineering positions are at risk, CTO positions were practically not affected by layoffs. There are rare examples of CTOs being laid off, but these cases were not related to the rise of AI.

Layoffs in data

Engineering roles	41%
Sales/marketing	26%
Product/Support	18%
Operations	9%
C-Level	<2%

Shift Towards AI: How the CTO Role Is Changing

We also analyzed approximately 1,200 real CTO job descriptions to understand how the role is changing in practice. We compared current postings with archived job ads from 2020–2022 using historical web snapshots and looked closely at how responsibilities, requirements, and expectations have evolved over time. Instead of relying on opinions, we focused on what companies are actually asking CTOs to do today.

One clear pattern stood out. Older job descriptions were heavily focused on hands-on engineering, building systems from scratch, and managing growing developer teams. In recent postings, there is a visible shift toward AI-driven workflows. Many companies now expect CTOs to actively use AI tools for code reviews, programming assistance, testing, infrastructure optimization, and even candidate screening. Productivity and automation are mentioned far more often than they were just a few years ago.

What this shows is that the CTO role isn’t disappearing — it’s being upgraded. Companies are not looking to replace CTOs with AI. They are looking for CTOs who know how to use AI to make their teams faster, leaner, and more effective. The focus is moving from “writing more code” to “building better systems with fewer resources.”

In other words, CTOs don’t need to worry about losing their jobs to AI — but they do need to keep up. The market is clearly rewarding technical leaders who stay curious, experiment with new tools, and continuously learn. Those who embrace AI as part of their daily workflow are becoming more valuable, not less.

The Rise of Fractional and Virtual CTOs

CTO work is also shifting toward fractional / virtual CTO setups. The main driver is simple: after 2022, companies became far more cost-sensitive, and a full-time CTO is one of the most expensive hires. A fractional CTO gives startups and mid-market teams senior decision-making and accountability without a permanent C-suite salary, and lets them scale leadership time up/down based on the current phase (MVP, scale-up, re-architecture, security, fundraising due diligence).

A second reason is speed + scarcity. Many teams need experienced tech leadership now (architecture choices, hiring plan, delivery process, vendor selection, security posture), but the market for strong CTOs is limited and hiring takes months. Fractional models widen the talent pool (often remote/global) and reduce the risk of a wrong full-time exec hire—especially when strategy needs may change quickly with AI tooling and shifting product bets.

Finally, it’s also a supply-side trend: more senior leaders are choosing portfolio leadership (multiple companies) over a single permanent role. Some reporting shows a sharp rise in LinkedIn profiles mentioning “fractional leadership,” and media has framed 2025 as a breakout year for “fractional” executive support across functions including CTO.

Besides providing companies with assessment tools and contractor management, EliteBrains cooperates with top-notch fractional CTOs. If you are looking for one for your startup or company, have a look at our list of available CTOs for hire.

 

Is the decrease in job postings in the past few years a relevant parameter?

We intentionally didn’t focus too much on the raw number of CTO job postings over time, because that data can be very misleading. The absolute hiring peak happened around 2021–2022, when tech companies were hiring almost everyone with a laptop and a GitHub account. That period was driven by cheap money, massive VC funding, and post-COVID optimism. When hiring started to slow down after that, it wasn’t because of AI — it was mostly because the bubble burst.

Since then, many other things have influenced the market: the war in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates, political uncertainty, and massive layoffs in big tech. All of this pushed companies to cut costs and freeze hiring. So when we see fewer job ads today, it’s very hard to say, “this is because of AI.” In reality, it’s a mix of many factors. Job counts are still a useful signal, but they should be treated as context — not as a strict rule or final proof of anything.

EliteBrains Replaceable Index for CTOs

After considering all of the described facts and data, we were finally able to calculate the replaceable index for CTOs. Not surprisingly, the number is very low — 2.25.